Rekt Capital: Bitcoin Will Rise in 2025, Then Fall Over 65% in 2026
Bitcoin Enters New 4-Year Cycle: Growth Opportunity or Waiting for the Storm?
Bitcoin officially started a new 4-year cycle in 2025 , with the expectation that this would be the “Candle 1” phase – a time when the market grows strongly before entering a bear market.
First Year In Cycle: Notable Price Action
Currently, Bitcoin is trading in the range of $91,000 – $101,000 , with many positive technical signs.
Renowned analyst Rekt Capital believes that the $101,000 level is an important resistance level.
Conditions for breakthrough:
Bitcoin needs to close the day above $101,000 .
This level must be retested as new support to generate bullish momentum.
The analysis also points out that recent price action has suggested the potential for a move towards the mid- $100,000 level , especially if technical signs continue to hold.
Strong Support At $93,200: Launch Pad For Markets
The $93,200 level is considered a strategic support zone:
Used to be resistance in Q4/2024 and now turned into solid support in Q1/2025 .
During the 15% correction , this level held, giving investors confidence in its strength.
Additionally, the bull flag pattern on the monthly chart further reinforces expectations that Bitcoin could surpass $96,450 , making it a new base in short-term corrections.
Understanding Bitcoin's 4-Year Cycle
Bitcoin operates in 4-year cycles, marked by candle phases:
Candle 1 (2025): The time of strongest growth.
Candle 2 & 3 (2026-2027): The market is stagnant and preparing for a correction phase.
Candle 4 (2028): Bear market period, before halving opens a new cycle.
Rekt Capital compares this cycle to the four seasons of the year, with 2025 being the “spring” – the boom season before moving into periods of stagnation and correction.
Expectations for “Candle 1”: Opportunity or Challenge?
2025 is predicted to be a year of parabolic moves . However, this is also the final stage of the current bull market.
Understanding the timing and price action during this cycle is key for investors to optimize profits.
Key takeaway: Bitcoin has the potential to break $101,000, but needs solid confirmation for the market to sustain its bullish momentum. Support levels like $93,200 will act as a foundation to bolster investor confidence.
Will Bitcoin Break Through Key Resistance Levels to Kick Off an Explosive Bull Cycle?
Or will the market enter a correction phase? The answer lies in the price action in the first months of 2025.